Related Papers
Three reasons why Brexit has failed to boost support for Scottish independence
2017 •
Sean Swan
In the immediate aftermath of the UK’s decision to leave the EU, several opinion polls showed a majority of people in Scotland would vote for independence in a hypothetical second referendum. However, as Sean Swan writes, the polling in recent months has shown a consistent majority of respondents opposing independence. He isolates three key reasons why Brexit has not resulted in the boost for independence that some observers had anticipated.
Determinants of Scottish Independence Preferences
Christiana Botticello
What explains the emergence and persistence of a widely popular separatist nationalist movement in a developed liberal democracy like the UK? What influenced the Scottish decision in the 2014 independence referendum, and do the 2015 election results indicate a dramatic increase in support for independence since the referendum? Furthermore, how has the Brexit vote on June 23, 2016 influenced considerations about independence? This paper considers explanations of popular support for separatism in Scotland and evaluates the determinants of intended referendum votes using the 2014 Scottish Social Attitudes (SSA) Survey. Results suggest that Scottish national identity and expectations of increased international recognition and reputation for Scotland are important conditions of support for independence. Nevertheless, some who strongly identify as Scots are also attached to British identity which influences the likelihood they will support independence. Furthermore, expectations of negative economic consequences of independence for Scotland are strongly related to preference for the union. Finally this paper also considers what we may learn from top-line data and cross-tabulations released from the 2015 and 2016 SSA and changes in polling results since June 2016 about how preferences have evolved since the referendum and especially since the Brexit vote.
Scotland, the UK and Brexit – At a Constitutional Crossroads
Soeren Keil, Paul Anderson
'“YES Scotland vs Better Together” How did it all happen?
Coppieters Foundation, Sandrina Antunes
This analysis stems from a desire to understand more thoroughly one of the most interesting political and participatory processes that have taken place in the first two decades of the 21st century in Europe: the referendum on self-determination for Scotland held in September 2014. In an exemplary way, the Scots have shown us the way forward for the resolution of the democratic aspirations to sovereignty of European Nations without States. We deem necessary to take advantage of this experience as a source of learning for all peoples claiming their right to self-determination and independence. This is why we decided to offer a contribution to a better understanding of some of the factors and variables present in the Scottish case. We wished to further understand the mechanisms and underlying logic involved in the perceptions and behaviours of the Scottish population faced with a question that has changed the future of Scotland and Europe forever. To do this, we decided to analyse the process from three different perspectives. First of all, we wished to examine, in the most detailed way possible, how the design of campaigns in favour and against the independence of Scotland affected the opinion of the people of Scotland (taking into account sociodemographic variables such as social class, gender, education and age). We also wanted to learn what discursive elements were decisive in the final choice for which people voted. Secondly, we reviewed the level of mobilization on social networks of activists in favour of the Yes and No camps, noting how much support and action within this context was transformed into actual electoral support for the different campaigns. Finally, we tracked the international component of the referendum and its effect on the global agenda. We examined how the issue generated public opinion and forced many socio-political protagonists to come down on one side or the other. In short, we sought to examine fully a phenomenon that received enough attention, in a large part of the Western world, to warrant its prominence, for months, on the front pages of the most influential international newspapers.
Internet et sentiment national dans la campagne du référendum sur l'indépendance écossaise de 2014 : le cas des femmes et des jeunes écossais
Marie Pennamen
Korean Journal of British Studies / 영국연구
Unions and Referenda: Scotland, Europe and the United Kingdom
2016 •
Paul Tonks
This article explores the multifaceted connections between the Scottish Independence Referendum of 2014 and the United Kingdom’s Referendum on membership of the European Union in 2016. It considers the implications for the United Kingdom of the historical evolution of Scottish attitudes to the British and European Unions. We examine the stark divergence between England and Scotland in terms of political allegiance and political culture, which reached an unprecedented level in the 2015 Westminster General Election. Scotland’s unsettled constitutional future in the British Union was not resolved by the No vote in the 2014 Independence Referendum, but has been thrown into further doubt by the upcoming vote on the United Kingdom’s membership of the European Union. This has been made obvious by the large gap between Scottish and English attitudes to the European Union, as Scotland is considerably less Eurosceptic than England overall. In order to explain this, we discuss the deep history of Scotland’s bonds with Europe (which have been increasingly revived since the 1980s). The article examines historical changes and continuities between the 1975 European Referendum and the debate in 2016. We conclude by discussing the likely outcome of the 2016 Referendum. Whilst we cannot be certain of the result, especially as current polls are in a statistical dead heat, we can judge safely that the profound links between the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum and the 2016 European Union membership Referendum reveal some of the most important historical forces that have shaped and will continue to shape the relationships between Scotland and the other nations of the United Kingdom. Keywords: 유럽연합, 영국연합, 국민투표, 스코틀랜드, 독립, 영국, 브렉시트, European Union, British Union, Referendum, Scotland, Independence, United Kingdom, Brexit. 본 논문은 2014년의 스코틀랜드 독립 국민투표와 2016년 영국의 유럽 연합 잔류-탈퇴 국민투표 간의 다층적인 관계를 탐구한다. 이를 위해 필 자는 영국 연합왕국과 유럽연합 각각에 대한 스코틀랜드인들의 태도의 역사적 진화가 향후 영국의 명운에 미칠 함의를 고려한다. 잉글랜드와 스 코틀랜드의 정치적 지향과 문화는 분명한 분화를 보였고, 이는 2015년의 영국 총선에서 더없이 크게 나타났다. 영국 연합왕국 내에서 스코틀랜드 의 불명확한 헌정적 지위는 2014년 스코틀랜드 독립 국민투표의 부결로 인해 해소되기는커녕, 다가오는 유럽연합 국민투표에 의해 더욱 혼란스러 워졌음이 드러났다. 이 사실은 스코틀랜드가 잉글랜드에 비해 훨씬 덜 유 럽회의주의적이라는 점에서 유추할 수 있다. 이러한 차이를 설명하기 위 해 필자는 (1980년대부터 점차 되살아나기 시작한) 스코틀랜드와 유럽 간 의 깊은 역사적 관계를 살펴본다. 또한 1975년의 유럽연합 국민투표와 2016년의 국민투표 논쟁 간의 역사적 연속성과 변화를 설명한다. 마지막 으로는 2016년 국민투표의 결과를 점쳐보면서 글을 맺고자 한다. 물론 여 론조사가 오차범위 내에 있기 때문에 결과를 정확하게 예측하기는 어렵 지만, 분명한 것은 2014년의 스코틀랜드 국민투표와 2016년의 유럽연합 국민투표 간의 관련성이 연합왕국 내에서 스코틀랜드와 여타 국가들 간 의 관계를 드러내 보인다는 사실이다.
From one Referendum to the Other: the Scottish Dimension to the Debate over Europe
Pauline Schnapper
Books & Ideas
Brexit and Scottish Nationalism: An Interview with Fiona Simpkins
2020 •
Mélanie Cournil
The Brexit vote, welcomed with dismay in Scotland, has prompted the Scottish National Party to present itself as the only sound alternative to Westminster's policies, viewed as damaging to Scottish interests. F. Simpkins analyses the SNP's strategies and outlines the many political challenges ahead.
"Rosemary Anne Selle, The Parritch and the Partridge: The Reception of Robert Burns in Germany. A History, 2nd ed. "
2015 •
Silke Stroh
The Role of the SNP and Party Cues in Voter Support for Scottish Independence and Brexit
Zachary Greene
Scotland's future within the EU played a prominent role in the 2014 independence referendum. The story goes that latent supporters of independence voted to stay within the UK to maintain EU access. Defeated, Scottish leaders declared the referendum a once-in-a-lifetime event only repeated if conditions substantially changed. With the UK now facing a chaotic exit from the EU, the conditions seem ripe for a renewed independence campaign. Scots voted overwhelmingly to " Remain " within the EU, but the story is more complex. We argue that those hoping for a second independence referendum saw Brexit as an opportunity to create the conditions that would spur a second referendum. Using panel data from the British Election Study, we examine whether Scottish voters voted tactically to leave the EU. We argue that SNP voters were likely to interpret statements on the conditions for a second independence referendum as an implicit signal to vote " Leave ". The results have important implications for the role of referendums in representative democracy, strategic voting, and the importance of intra-party division on individual vote choices.
