Fantasy Football Rankings 2024: NFL sleepers, breakouts, busts by the model that predicted Samuel's tough year (2024)

The release of the 2024 NFL schedule means it's time to begin 2024 Fantasy football draft prep. Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow square off for the fourth straight regular season and owners won't have to wait long for that matchup since it comes in Week 2 after the defending champions open with the Ravens on Thursday Night Football on September 5. Kansas City won with a stronger defense last season, so how should this change in philosophy affect your 2024 Fantasy football rankings? Should you move Mahomes down your 2024 Fantasy football QB rankings?

It's critical to target 2024 Fantasy football sleepers and 2024 Fantasy football breakouts while avoiding 2024 Fantasy football busts. Before setting your 2024 Fantasy football draft strategy, be sure to check out the 2024 Fantasy football rankings and cheat sheets from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Last year, the model accurately predicted that Buccaneers wide receiver Rachaad White was being dramatically undervalued. White was coming off the board in the seventh round on average in 12-team PPR leagues, but he emerged as Tampa Bay's workhorse running back and provided significantly more value than expected, finishing No. 4 at his position. White rushed for 990 yards and six touchdowns while adding 64 catches for 549 yards and three more scores as a receiver. Anybody who followed the model's advice scored an every week starting running back in the middle rounds.

The same model has a proven track record providing Fantasy football tips, identifying A.J. Brown as a sleeper in 2020 and nailing Jonathan Taylor's monstrous season in 2021. Additionally, it's called past Fantasy football sleepers like Derrick Henry in 2019, Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara in 2018, and Davante Adams in 2017. Anybody who banked on players like those made a run at their league title.

The model is powered by the same people who generated projections for all three major Fantasy sites, and it beat human experts last season when there was a big difference in ranking. The 2024 Fantasy football PPR rankings and 2024 Fantasy football standard projections update multiple times daily, so you're always getting the best Fantasy football advice.

Now, SportsLine has simulated the entire NFL season 10,000 times and released its latest Fantasy football rankings 2024, along with plenty of sleepers, breakouts and busts.Head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2024 Fantasy football sleepers

One of the 2024 Fantasy football sleepers the model is predicting: Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts. The Falcons have made several changes this offseason that will positively affect Pitts' Fantasy value. Atlanta signed veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract this offseason. Cousins targeted tight ends on 27% of his passes in 2023, the fifth most of any QB in the NFL in 2024.

Pitts should also benefit from the departure of fellow tight end Jonnu Smith, a favorite of former head coach Arthur Smith who often poached snaps from Pitts. The talented tight end played all 17 games in 2023 after suffering a season-ending MCL sprain in his right knee in Week 11 of the 2022 campaign. Pitts eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season and is expected to be heavily involved in Atlanta's new-look offense in 2024.See more Fantasy football sleepers 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy football breakouts

The model is also projecting Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels as one of its 2024 Fantasy football breakouts. Last year's Heisman Trophy winner passed for 3,812 yards and 40 touchdowns and rushed for 1,134 yards and 10 touchdowns at LSU. After averaging 1,009.5 rushing yards and 10.5 touchdowns over his last two seasons in college, the 6-foot-3 quarterback has the makeup of an elite dual-threat quarterback.

Quarterbacks with the ability to run and score are major assets in Fantasy football. Jalen Hurts was QB2 despite ranking 14th in passing yards and Lamar Jackson was QB4 despite being 15th in passing yards last season. Daniels showcased the ability to throw at college and with weapons such as Terry McLaurin as WR1, Zach Ertz at tight end and Austin Ekeler in the backfield, Daniels has upside to break out as a top starting Fantasy football quarterback.See more Fantasy football breakouts 2024 here.

Top 2024 Fantasy football busts

As for players to avoid, the model lists Bears receiver Keenan Allen as one of its 2024 Fantasy football busts. Allen ranked third among wide receivers in Fantasy points per game last year, finishing as the WR8 overall. He commanded a whopping 31% target share and showed no signs of slowing down as he entered the latter stages of his career.

However, he will have to overcome new obstacles in Chicago like playing with a rookie quarterback. He also has more competition for targets from teammates D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze than he had with the Chargers. Allen relied heavily on his target share to produce strong Fantasy numbers, so the model recommends avoiding the veteran with your 2024 Fantasy football picks.See more Fantasy football busts 2024 here

How to find proven 2024 Fantasy football football rankings

SportsLine is also extremely high on a surprising quarterback you aren't even thinking about being taken in the middle rounds of 2024 Fantasy football drafts. This quarterback is listed as a shocking top-10 option ahead of stars like Trevor Lawrence and Aaron Rodgers.You can only see who it is, and the 2023 Fantasy football rankings for every player, at SportsLine.

So which 2024 Fantasy Football sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get 2024 Fantasy Football cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.

Fantasy Football Rankings 2024: NFL sleepers, breakouts, busts by the model that predicted Samuel's tough year (2024)


Who has been the most accurate fantasy football projections? ›

The most trusted fantasy football analyst is the most accurate fantasy football analyst. And that would be Jared Smola from Draft Sharks, winner of the Multi-Year Projection Accuracy Award. That award goes to the fantasy football analyst with the most accurate projections for a 3-year period.

Who is the top fantasy pick this year? ›

1. Christian McCaffrey, SF (RB1)

What is the best fantasy football site for advice? ›

Best Fantasy Football Sites (2024 Review)
  • BEST FANTASY FOOTBALL ADVICE. Draft Sharks. Score: 97/100. record of accuracy. top-shelf tools. ...
  • BEST DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL. Sleeper. Score: 94/100. free to use. adaptable scoring. ...
  • BEST FANTASY FOOTBALL HOSTING. Fantrax. Score: 93/100. highly customizable. range of formats.
May 17, 2024

Who is the consensus #1 fantasy football? ›

Consensus of 53 Experts (75 available) - Jun 1, 2024
RKPlayer NamePOS
Tier 1
1C. McCaffrey (SF)RB1
2C. Lamb (DAL)WR1
3T. Hill (MIA)WR2
34 more rows

Are ESPN fantasy projections accurate? ›

The mean of the projected scores is slightly higher than that of the actual scores meaning that, in expectation, the underlying regression model overpredicts scores. The standard deviation of the actual scores is much higher than that of the projected scores.

Who is projected to be the best fantasy running back? ›

Christian McCaffrey is expected to be the top pick at running back — and the No. 1 overall pick, in general — for fantasy purposes. No surprise there, especially if he (hopefully) stays healthy throughout training camp.

Who has the highest fantasy performance this year? ›

Fantasy Football Stats and Season Leaders
1Josh Allen QB BUF 385/579 • 4306 YDS • 29 TD • 18 INT • 4 FL QB RAT 92.22 • 66.5 % • 7.4 YDS/ATT 111 ATT • 524 YDS • 4.7 AVG • 15 TD392.64
2Jalen Hurts QB PHI 352/538 • 3858 YDS • 23 TD • 15 INT • 5 FL QB RAT 89.12 • 65.4 % • 7.2 YDS/ATT 157 ATT • 605 YDS • 3.9 AVG • 15 TD356.82
48 more rows

How accurate is the IBM Watson fantasy football system? ›

The merged model was able to infer correct answers to football questions 97.96 percent of the time in analogy tests. Using deep neural networks with more than 90 layers, the system was trained to determine if a player would boom, bust or play with an injury.


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